Milwaukee fans and All-Star performances place the Bucks one win away from the Ring
It’s no secret: the Bucks are one win away following AMAZING games by Giannis and his crew. The Suns have actually been playing very well. The devil’s in the details though and they missed their chance to take Game 5 in the final moments of the game.
I looked at the shot distribution per quarter for the top 3 players of each team to paint a picture. Moreover, I did some clustering of each team’s shots. A short description of the key points noticed, as well as how to read the graphs, follows.
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How to read the graphs
Shots per Quarter
Let’s take Giannis as an example:
- The first chart shows that in Games 1 & 2:
- 1st half: he took 52% of his total shots, he took 17 shots, and made 53% of them.
- 3rd quarter: he took 24% of his total shots, he took 8 shots, and made 75% of them.
- 4th quarter: he took 24% of his total shots, he took 8 shots, and made 75% of them.
Shot Clusters
Let’s take the Bucks Shot Clusters in 2021 NBA Finals Games 3, 4, 5.
- The first chart shows that in Games 1 & 2, Khris Middleton:
- Around 25%, or 21 of his 66 shots were in the “Made Distance” cluster.
Shot Charts with Shot Clusters
Let’s take the Suns Shot Clusters: 2021 NBA Finals Games 1 & 2.
- The last shot chart indicates a cluster that contains, among others:
- 5 + 9 + 2 = 16 3-pointers.
- 0% of those shot were made.
- all shots were in the first 5-10.
Clustering as a technique
Clustering is a classification technique that can be used to divide shots into groups. These groups, aka clusters, contain similar shots and are different to each other. It is an unsupervised learning method that can help us recognize the natural groups that appear. There are plenty of great resources on the web with more info and I recommend that anyone interested in data analysis, not just in sports but in sciences and business, should master this technique.
Feel free to contact us for any questions or tips.
Our clustering method
We then applied agglomerative hierarchical clustering to build our hierarchy of clusters, using the Ward minimum deviance method.
Please note that due to the abundance of articles from statistics experts on the web, we do not go into detail here on the specific techniques. We are always open for ideas though and many of our posts are a result of our readers’ and followers’ requests. Do not hesitate to reach out for more info!
Phoenix can still win it if they change their game plan
Phoenix are one win away from blowing their 2-0 NBA Finals lead. They need to return to their Game 1 & 2 game plans to win at Milwaukee. Most importantly, they need to be more focused in the final moments of the game.
How the Suns top 3 scorers distribute their shots and perform
- Booker is averaging 30 points with 47% field goal accuracy throughout the series – simply brilliant!
- In the first four games, he spent the first half taking many 3-pointers.
- His shot selection in the 3rd quarters at Milwaukee was good, since he had 80% accuracy. However, this translates to 1 more shot made compared to 3rd quarters in the first two games.
- Devin was crucial in the 4th quarter of Game 5. He made 5/9 shots. Unfortunately, he had a crucial turnover at the end, giving the Bucks the win.
- Chris Paul was amazing in the first 2 games at Phoenix but has been struggling since, especially in Game 4, where he disappeared.
- His 3rd quarter accuracy dropped significantly at Milwaukee and he’s taking fewer shots.
- CP3 made all 4 shots in the 4th quarter of Game 5.
- Bridges averaged 20.5 pts in the first two games but averages 8 points since then!
- He took more shots in Game 2 than Games 3, 4, and 5 in total.
- Bridges is taking fewer shots although his Game 5 accuracy was quite solid.
- The Suns need him to step up offensively for a chance to win this series.
Team shot distribution and 3-Pointers granted Phoenix the 2-game lead; Booker not enough for a one-man show in rest of series
I split the Suns’ shots into six unique clusters for Games 1 & 2 and six clusters for Games 3, 4, & 5.
Game 1 & 2 Clusters
In Games 1 & 2, the clusters were:
- Shot Clock Buzzer Beating Attempts, i.e. shots made at the end of the quarter and near the end of the shot clock
- Made Distance, i.e. shots made mainly from a distance
- Missed Distance, i.e. shots missed mainly from a distance, around 7-12 seconds into a play
- Made Close Range, i.e. 2-point shots made mainly from the paint
- Shot Clock Beating Attempts, i.e. shots taken near the end of the shot clock but not at the end of a quarter
- Fast Break Distance Miss, i.e. shots taken within the first 5 seconds of a play but missed
I also looked at how many field goal attempts each player had and which clusters the shots belonged to. Key observations:
- Devin Booker took a lot of 3-pointers but mainly missed them on the fast break.
- Chris Paul and Mikal Bridges were good from a distance.
- There was a linear drop in field goals attempted from one player to the other. This indicates a relatively normal shot distribution.
Game 3, 4, & 5 Clusters
In Games 3, 4, & 5, the clusters were:
- Made Close Range, i.e. 2-point shots made mainly from the paint
- Missed Distance, i.e. shots missed mainly from a distance
- Shot Clock Beating Attempts, i.e. shots taken near the end of the shot clock
- Close Range Fast Break, i.e. shots taken within the first 5 seconds of a play
- Missed Mid Range, i.e. shots missed mainly from mid range, around 7-17 seconds into a play
- Made Distance, i.e. shots made mainly from outside the paint
I also looked at how many field goal attempts each player had and which clusters the shots belonged to. Key observations:
- Devin Booker had a lot of missed 3-pointers
- Chris Paul missed a lot of mid range shots.
- There was a significant drop in field goals attempted from everyone besides Booker. He took matters into his own hands but could have definitely used some help.
Giannis wants it and his teammates are there for him
In our article after Game 2 we mentioned that “the Bucks are down 2-0 and they desperately need to win at Milwaukee to turn this series around. Khris and Jrue really need to improve if they want to help the two-time MVP Giannis bring Milwaukee the title.”
Well, it’s happening!
How the Bucks top 3 scorers distribute their shots and perform
- Giannis Antetokounmpo fought through his knee injury and has been amazing in the Finals.
- His scoring numbers have been incredible!
- Giannis started off slow in Game 5 but took 65% of his shot attempts in the 2nd half, making 9/15.
- Khris Middleton has been taking 55% of his shots in the Finals in the 1st half. He’s been struggling to make them though.
- He made 8/12 shots (66%) in the 2nd half of Game 5 with some critical points.
- His performance is exactly what Giannis needs.
- Jrue Holiday is doing great after two bad games at Phoenix for Games 1 & 2.
- In Game 5, he took most of his shots in the 1st half and made 73%. He’s the main reason why the Suns’ deficit was sliced.
- It does look like the pressure is onto him since in 4th quarters his field goal percentages drop. Still, his lob pass to Giannis in Game 5 is one of the most iconic ever!
Fast pace shots and missed 3 pointers the culprit for Bucks two losses; Team psychology brought three straight wins
I split the Bucks shots into six unique clusters for Games 1 & 2 and six clusters for Games 3, 4, & 5.
Game 1 & 2 Clusters
In Games 1 & 2, the clusters were:
- Made Distance, i.e. shots made mainly from a distance, around 7-12 seconds into a play
- Missed Distance, i.e. shots missed mainly from a distance, around 7-12 seconds into a play
- Shot Clock Beating Attempts, i.e. shots taken near the end of the shot clock
- Missed Mid Range, i.e. shots missed mainly from mid range, around 7-17 seconds into a play
- Close Range Fast Break, i.e. shots taken within the first 5 seconds of a play from the paint
- Made Close Range, i.e. 2-point shots made mainly from the paint
I also looked at how many field goal attempts each player had and which clusters the shots belonged to. Key observations:
- Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, and Pat Connaughton were bad from beyond the arc.
- Jrue Holiday took more shots than Giannis and was actually the go-to person with the clock winding down.
Game 3, 4, & 5 Clusters
In Games 3, 4, & 5, the clusters were:
- Made Close Range, i.e. 2-point shots made mainly from the paint
- Missed Distance, i.e. shots missed mainly from a distance
- Shot Clock Beating Attempts, i.e. shots taken near the end of the shot clock
- Close Range Fast Break, i.e. shots taken within the first 5 seconds of a play
- Missed Mid Range, i.e. shots missed mainly from mid range, around 7-17 seconds into a play
- Made Distance, i.e. shots made mainly from outside the paint
I also looked at how many field goal attempts each player had and which clusters the shots belonged to. Key observations:
- Giannis was brutal on the fast break and most of his field goal attempts were in that cluster.
- Khris Middleton and Pat Connaughton were great from beyond the arc.
