EURO 2020 Fantasy: Projected Points and Probabilities for the Round of 16

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The EURO 2020 Fantasy tournament starts again today. Are you excited?

Our algorithm team has not been doing too good. We had 65 points in Matchday 1, 29 in Matchday 2, and 49 in Matchday 3. With 143 points, we are 25th in our Sweep Sports Analytics league. Worldwide we are in position 944,316 out of over 3.5 million teams, around the top 25%. Not as good as we wanted to.

Congrats to the leaders in our league so far! It’s going to be a tight race! You can still join by entering the code 72LUL71H07 or clicking on the link here.

Sweep Sports Analytics Fantasy League Top 10 Teams After Group Stage

Al Gore Rhythm looking to bounce back!

We ran our optimization algorithm again and below is the team we came up with. Note that the main changes in this round are:

  • You can have up to 4 players from a single team
  • You get $5M extra budget
  • You have unlimited transfers
Our Al Gore Rhythm team for the Round of 16

For the quarter finals, if you would like us to optimize your team (of course for free), please contact us with your team’s details (lineup and budget). We will run the algorithm for you and give you the 15 best lineups it comes up with.

Player probabilities and projections: Use the table below for your team

You can have a look at the projections and probabilities by going to this Google Sheets Link. You can download or copy the file and use it as you like. I noticed that the source of the projected lineups has a few errors here and there with some players. Nevertheless, the probabilities are valid. The sheet gives you a pretty good idea of what is expected to happen.

PlayerPosPriceAppearance PointsClean Sheet ProbabilityClean Sheet Expected PointsGoal ProbabilityGoal Expected PointsAssist ProbabilityAssist Expected PointsTotal Projection
Alessandro BastoniDEF4.502.000.642.560.
Giovanni Di LorenzoDEF5.102.000.642.560.
Benjamin PavardDEF6.002.000.632.520.
Raphael VaraneDEF6.102.000.632.520.
Francesco AcerbiDEF5.002.000.642.560.
Leonardo BonucciDEF5.602.000.642.560.
Daniel WassDEF5.002.000.592.370.
Presnel KimpembeDEF5.602.000.632.520.
Jannik VestergaardDEF5.002.000.592.370.
Aymeric LaporteDEF6.102.000.592.370.
Joakim MaehleDEF4.502.000.592.370.
Pau TorresDEF4.602.000.592.370.
Gianluigi DonnarummaGK5.602.000.642.560.
Hugo LlorisGK6.102.000.632.520.
Lucas HernandezDEF6.602.000.632.520.
Andreas ChristensenDEF5.502.000.592.370.
Simon KjaerDEF4.502.000.592.370.
Diego LlorenteDEF4.502.000.592.370.
Jordi AlbaDEF6.102.000.592.370.
Kasper SchmeichelGK5.002.000.592.370.
Unai SimonGK5.102.000.592.370.
Denzel DumfriesDEF5.602.000.512.
Nathan AkeDEF5.002.000.512.
Owen WijndalDEF4.502.000.512.
Stefan de VrijDEF5.502.000.512.
Marcus DanielsonDEF4.702.000.461.860.
Mikael LustigDEF5.202.000.461.860.
Victor LindelofDEF5.602.000.461.860.
Ludwig AugustinssonDEF5.602.000.461.860.
Maarten StekelenburgGK4.702.000.512.
Thomas MeunierDEF5.702.000.421.670.
Kieran TrippierDEF5.102.000.401.600.
Robin OlsenGK5.102.000.461.860.
Robin GosensDEF5.202.000.361.460.
Dedryk BoyataDEF4.602.000.421.670.
Lorenzo InsigneMID8.602.000.640.640.180.710.180.714.14
Jan VertonghenDEF5.602.000.421.670.
Toby AlderweireldDEF5.602.000.421.670.
Harry MaguireDEF5.502.000.401.600.
John StonesDEF5.602.000.401.600.
Luke ShawDEF6.002.000.401.600.
Domenico BerardiMID6.202.000.640.640.160.660.160.664.06
Oleksandr ZinchenkoDEF5.502.000.381.500.
Ciro ImmobileFWD10.102.000.640.
Kyle WalkerDEF5.502.000.401.600.
Oleksandr KaravaievDEF5.002.000.381.500.
Raphael GuerreiroDEF6.702.000.351.400.
Vitaliy MykolenkoDEF4.502.000.381.500.
Thibaut CourtoisGK6.102.000.421.670.
Illia ZabarnyiDEF4.502.000.381.500.
Memphis DepayFWD10.102.000.510.000.240.970.240.973.95
Mykola MatviyenkoDEF4.502.000.381.500.
Romelu LukakuFWD11.202.000.420.000.240.970.240.973.95
Mats HummelsDEF5.002.000.361.460.
Matthias GinterDEF5.002.000.361.460.
Jordan PickfordGK5.602.000.401.600.
Antonio RudigerDEF5.502.000.361.460.
Ferran TorresMID8.002.000.590.590.190.580.190.583.87
Ruben DiasDEF6.002.000.351.400.
Harry KaneFWD11.502.000.400.000.230.920.230.923.86
Karim BenzemaFWD10.002.000.630.000.230.920.230.923.86
Georgiy BushchanGK4.702.000.381.500.
Manuel NeuerGK6.002.000.361.460.
Connor RobertsDEF4.702.000.331.310.
Ben DaviesDEF5.502.000.331.310.
Chris MephamDEF4.602.000.331.310.
Daniel OlmoMID7.002.000.590.590.160.490.160.493.73
Antoine GriezmannFWD11.102.000.630.000.210.840.210.843.72
Cristiano RonaldoFWD12.202.000.350.000.210.840.210.843.72
Donyell MalenFWD6.002.000.510.000.210.840.210.843.72
Joe RodonDEF4.702.000.331.310.
Nelson SemedoDEF5.102.000.351.400.
Rui PatricioGK5.602.000.351.400.
Gareth BaleMID9.602.000.330.330.150.610.150.613.67
Eden HazardMID10.002.000.420.420.140.540.140.543.64
Raheem SterlingMID9.602.000.400.400.140.540.140.543.62
Danny WardGK4.702.000.331.310.
Paul PogbaMID8.502.000.630.630.110.350.110.353.52
Mikkel DamsgaardMID5.902.000.590.590.120.360.120.363.51
Alexander IsakFWD8.002.000.460.000.180.710.180.713.50
Ricardo RodriguezDEF5.502.000.240.950.
Andriy YarmolenkoMID8.602.000.380.380.110.460.110.463.46
Davy KlaassenMID5.502.000.510.510.130.380.130.383.46
Georginio WijnaldumMID8.102.000.510.510.130.380.130.383.46
Emil ForsbergMID7.702.000.460.460.140.410.140.413.45
Serge GnabryMID9.502.000.360.360.150.460.150.463.45
Fabian ScharDEF4.902.000.240.950.
Roman YaremchukFWD7.302.000.380.000.160.660.160.663.42
Manuel LocatelliMID5.702.000.640.640.
Nicolo BarellaMID7.202.000.640.640.
Diogo JotaMID8.602.000.350.350.140.430.140.433.38
Dejan LovrenDEF5.
Domagoj VidaDEF5.
Josip JuranovicDEF4.502.000.240.960.
Kevin De BruyneMID10.602.000.420.420.130.380.130.383.37
Kevin MbabuDEF4.902.000.240.950.
Manuel AkanjiDEF5.
Nico ElvediDEF4.502.000.240.950.

Do you agree with the projections? Let us know what your team looks like!

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