The EURO 2020 Fantasy tournament starts again today. Are you excited?
Our algorithm team has not been doing too good. We had 65 points in Matchday 1, 29 in Matchday 2, and 49 in Matchday 3. With 143 points, we are 25th in our Sweep Sports Analytics league. Worldwide we are in position 944,316 out of over 3.5 million teams, around the top 25%. Not as good as we wanted to.
Congrats to the leaders in our league so far! It’s going to be a tight race! You can still join by entering the code 72LUL71H07 or clicking on the link here.
Al Gore Rhythm looking to bounce back!
We ran our optimization algorithm again and below is the team we came up with. Note that the main changes in this round are:
- You can have up to 4 players from a single team
- You get $5M extra budget
- You have unlimited transfers
For the quarter finals, if you would like us to optimize your team (of course for free), please contact us with your team’s details (lineup and budget). We will run the algorithm for you and give you the 15 best lineups it comes up with.
Player probabilities and projections: Use the table below for your team
You can have a look at the projections and probabilities by going to this Google Sheets Link. You can download or copy the file and use it as you like. I noticed that the source of the projected lineups has a few errors here and there with some players. Nevertheless, the probabilities are valid. The sheet gives you a pretty good idea of what is expected to happen.
| Player | Pos | Price | Appearance Points | Clean Sheet Probability | Clean Sheet Expected Points | Goal Probability | Goal Expected Points | Assist Probability | Assist Expected Points | Total Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandro Bastoni | DEF | 4.50 | 2.00 | 0.64 | 2.56 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 5.13 |
| Giovanni Di Lorenzo | DEF | 5.10 | 2.00 | 0.64 | 2.56 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 5.11 |
| Benjamin Pavard | DEF | 6.00 | 2.00 | 0.63 | 2.52 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 5.08 |
| Raphael Varane | DEF | 6.10 | 2.00 | 0.63 | 2.52 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 5.08 |
| Francesco Acerbi | DEF | 5.00 | 2.00 | 0.64 | 2.56 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 5.06 |
| Leonardo Bonucci | DEF | 5.60 | 2.00 | 0.64 | 2.56 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 5.06 |
| Daniel Wass | DEF | 5.00 | 2.00 | 0.59 | 2.37 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 4.95 |
| Presnel Kimpembe | DEF | 5.60 | 2.00 | 0.63 | 2.52 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 4.94 |
| Jannik Vestergaard | DEF | 5.00 | 2.00 | 0.59 | 2.37 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 4.92 |
| Aymeric Laporte | DEF | 6.10 | 2.00 | 0.59 | 2.37 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 4.90 |
| Joakim Maehle | DEF | 4.50 | 2.00 | 0.59 | 2.37 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 4.89 |
| Pau Torres | DEF | 4.60 | 2.00 | 0.59 | 2.37 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 4.87 |
| Gianluigi Donnarumma | GK | 5.60 | 2.00 | 0.64 | 2.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.86 |
| Hugo Lloris | GK | 6.10 | 2.00 | 0.63 | 2.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.82 |
| Lucas Hernandez | DEF | 6.60 | 2.00 | 0.63 | 2.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.82 |
| Andreas Christensen | DEF | 5.50 | 2.00 | 0.59 | 2.37 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 4.81 |
| Simon Kjaer | DEF | 4.50 | 2.00 | 0.59 | 2.37 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 4.81 |
| Diego Llorente | DEF | 4.50 | 2.00 | 0.59 | 2.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.67 |
| Jordi Alba | DEF | 6.10 | 2.00 | 0.59 | 2.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.67 |
| Kasper Schmeichel | GK | 5.00 | 2.00 | 0.59 | 2.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.67 |
| Unai Simon | GK | 5.10 | 2.00 | 0.59 | 2.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.67 |
| Denzel Dumfries | DEF | 5.60 | 2.00 | 0.51 | 2.03 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 4.56 |
| Nathan Ake | DEF | 5.00 | 2.00 | 0.51 | 2.03 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 4.56 |
| Owen Wijndal | DEF | 4.50 | 2.00 | 0.51 | 2.03 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 4.56 |
| Stefan de Vrij | DEF | 5.50 | 2.00 | 0.51 | 2.03 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 4.56 |
| Marcus Danielson | DEF | 4.70 | 2.00 | 0.46 | 1.86 | 0.06 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 0.18 | 4.47 |
| Mikael Lustig | DEF | 5.20 | 2.00 | 0.46 | 1.86 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 4.36 |
| Victor Lindelof | DEF | 5.60 | 2.00 | 0.46 | 1.86 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 4.36 |
| Ludwig Augustinsson | DEF | 5.60 | 2.00 | 0.46 | 1.86 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 4.33 |
| Maarten Stekelenburg | GK | 4.70 | 2.00 | 0.51 | 2.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.33 |
| Thomas Meunier | DEF | 5.70 | 2.00 | 0.42 | 1.67 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 4.19 |
| Kieran Trippier | DEF | 5.10 | 2.00 | 0.40 | 1.60 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 4.16 |
| Robin Olsen | GK | 5.10 | 2.00 | 0.46 | 1.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.16 |
| Robin Gosens | DEF | 5.20 | 2.00 | 0.36 | 1.46 | 0.08 | 0.23 | 0.08 | 0.23 | 4.15 |
| Dedryk Boyata | DEF | 4.60 | 2.00 | 0.42 | 1.67 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 4.14 |
| Lorenzo Insigne | MID | 8.60 | 2.00 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.18 | 0.71 | 0.18 | 0.71 | 4.14 |
| Jan Vertonghen | DEF | 5.60 | 2.00 | 0.42 | 1.67 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 4.11 |
| Toby Alderweireld | DEF | 5.60 | 2.00 | 0.42 | 1.67 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 4.11 |
| Harry Maguire | DEF | 5.50 | 2.00 | 0.40 | 1.60 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 4.10 |
| John Stones | DEF | 5.60 | 2.00 | 0.40 | 1.60 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 4.10 |
| Luke Shaw | DEF | 6.00 | 2.00 | 0.40 | 1.60 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 4.07 |
| Domenico Berardi | MID | 6.20 | 2.00 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.16 | 0.66 | 0.16 | 0.66 | 4.06 |
| Oleksandr Zinchenko | DEF | 5.50 | 2.00 | 0.38 | 1.50 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 4.06 |
| Ciro Immobile | FWD | 10.10 | 2.00 | 0.64 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 1.02 | 0.26 | 1.02 | 4.04 |
| Kyle Walker | DEF | 5.50 | 2.00 | 0.40 | 1.60 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 4.04 |
| Oleksandr Karavaiev | DEF | 5.00 | 2.00 | 0.38 | 1.50 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 3.98 |
| Raphael Guerreiro | DEF | 6.70 | 2.00 | 0.35 | 1.40 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 3.98 |
| Vitaliy Mykolenko | DEF | 4.50 | 2.00 | 0.38 | 1.50 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 3.98 |
| Thibaut Courtois | GK | 6.10 | 2.00 | 0.42 | 1.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.97 |
| Illia Zabarnyi | DEF | 4.50 | 2.00 | 0.38 | 1.50 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 3.95 |
| Memphis Depay | FWD | 10.10 | 2.00 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.97 | 0.24 | 0.97 | 3.95 |
| Mykola Matviyenko | DEF | 4.50 | 2.00 | 0.38 | 1.50 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 3.95 |
| Romelu Lukaku | FWD | 11.20 | 2.00 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.97 | 0.24 | 0.97 | 3.95 |
| Mats Hummels | DEF | 5.00 | 2.00 | 0.36 | 1.46 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 3.93 |
| Matthias Ginter | DEF | 5.00 | 2.00 | 0.36 | 1.46 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 3.93 |
| Jordan Pickford | GK | 5.60 | 2.00 | 0.40 | 1.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.90 |
| Antonio Rudiger | DEF | 5.50 | 2.00 | 0.36 | 1.46 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 3.87 |
| Ferran Torres | MID | 8.00 | 2.00 | 0.59 | 0.59 | 0.19 | 0.58 | 0.19 | 0.58 | 3.87 |
| Ruben Dias | DEF | 6.00 | 2.00 | 0.35 | 1.40 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 3.87 |
| Harry Kane | FWD | 11.50 | 2.00 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.92 | 0.23 | 0.92 | 3.86 |
| Karim Benzema | FWD | 10.00 | 2.00 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.92 | 0.23 | 0.92 | 3.86 |
| Georgiy Bushchan | GK | 4.70 | 2.00 | 0.38 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 |
| Manuel Neuer | GK | 6.00 | 2.00 | 0.36 | 1.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.76 |
| Connor Roberts | DEF | 4.70 | 2.00 | 0.33 | 1.31 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 3.75 |
| Ben Davies | DEF | 5.50 | 2.00 | 0.33 | 1.31 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 3.73 |
| Chris Mepham | DEF | 4.60 | 2.00 | 0.33 | 1.31 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 3.73 |
| Daniel Olmo | MID | 7.00 | 2.00 | 0.59 | 0.59 | 0.16 | 0.49 | 0.16 | 0.49 | 3.73 |
| Antoine Griezmann | FWD | 11.10 | 2.00 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.84 | 0.21 | 0.84 | 3.72 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | FWD | 12.20 | 2.00 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.84 | 0.21 | 0.84 | 3.72 |
| Donyell Malen | FWD | 6.00 | 2.00 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.84 | 0.21 | 0.84 | 3.72 |
| Joe Rodon | DEF | 4.70 | 2.00 | 0.33 | 1.31 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 3.70 |
| Nelson Semedo | DEF | 5.10 | 2.00 | 0.35 | 1.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.70 |
| Pepe | DEF | 5.10 | 2.00 | 0.35 | 1.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.70 |
| Rui Patricio | GK | 5.60 | 2.00 | 0.35 | 1.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.70 |
| Gareth Bale | MID | 9.60 | 2.00 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.15 | 0.61 | 0.15 | 0.61 | 3.67 |
| Eden Hazard | MID | 10.00 | 2.00 | 0.42 | 0.42 | 0.14 | 0.54 | 0.14 | 0.54 | 3.64 |
| Raheem Sterling | MID | 9.60 | 2.00 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.14 | 0.54 | 0.14 | 0.54 | 3.62 |
| Danny Ward | GK | 4.70 | 2.00 | 0.33 | 1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.61 |
| Paul Pogba | MID | 8.50 | 2.00 | 0.63 | 0.63 | 0.11 | 0.35 | 0.11 | 0.35 | 3.52 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard | MID | 5.90 | 2.00 | 0.59 | 0.59 | 0.12 | 0.36 | 0.12 | 0.36 | 3.51 |
| Alexander Isak | FWD | 8.00 | 2.00 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.71 | 0.18 | 0.71 | 3.50 |
| Ricardo Rodriguez | DEF | 5.50 | 2.00 | 0.24 | 0.95 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 3.48 |
| Andriy Yarmolenko | MID | 8.60 | 2.00 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.11 | 0.46 | 0.11 | 0.46 | 3.46 |
| Davy Klaassen | MID | 5.50 | 2.00 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.13 | 0.38 | 0.13 | 0.38 | 3.46 |
| Georginio Wijnaldum | MID | 8.10 | 2.00 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.13 | 0.38 | 0.13 | 0.38 | 3.46 |
| Emil Forsberg | MID | 7.70 | 2.00 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.14 | 0.41 | 0.14 | 0.41 | 3.45 |
| Serge Gnabry | MID | 9.50 | 2.00 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.15 | 0.46 | 0.15 | 0.46 | 3.45 |
| Fabian Schar | DEF | 4.90 | 2.00 | 0.24 | 0.95 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 3.42 |
| Roman Yaremchuk | FWD | 7.30 | 2.00 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.66 | 0.16 | 0.66 | 3.42 |
| Manuel Locatelli | MID | 5.70 | 2.00 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.09 | 0.27 | 0.09 | 0.27 | 3.39 |
| Nicolo Barella | MID | 7.20 | 2.00 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.09 | 0.27 | 0.09 | 0.27 | 3.39 |
| Diogo Jota | MID | 8.60 | 2.00 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.14 | 0.43 | 0.14 | 0.43 | 3.38 |
| Dejan Lovren | DEF | 5.00 | 2.00 | 0.24 | 0.96 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 3.37 |
| Domagoj Vida | DEF | 5.00 | 2.00 | 0.24 | 0.96 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 3.37 |
| Josip Juranovic | DEF | 4.50 | 2.00 | 0.24 | 0.96 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 3.37 |
| Kevin De Bruyne | MID | 10.60 | 2.00 | 0.42 | 0.42 | 0.13 | 0.38 | 0.13 | 0.38 | 3.37 |
| Kevin Mbabu | DEF | 4.90 | 2.00 | 0.24 | 0.95 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 3.37 |
| Manuel Akanji | DEF | 5.00 | 2.00 | 0.24 | 0.95 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 3.37 |
| Nico Elvedi | DEF | 4.50 | 2.00 | 0.24 | 0.95 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 3.37 |