EURO 2020 Group F: Matchday 2 Review & Matchday 3 Outlook – France, Germany, Portugal, and Hungary All Potential Casualties in the Group of Death

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Matchday 2 Review

Hungary alive, survived against France

N’Golo Kante is amazing. He puts a lot of pressure on opponents and against Hungary he had 4 tackles and 2 interceptions. The midfield belongs to him. Antoine Griezmann pressure really pays off. He had 4 successful tackles and scored the equalizing goal. He has given 5 key passes but yet to get an assist. His teammates need to step it up. Kylian Mbappe had 5 successful dribbles, but with 0.7 xG he was expected to score.

Attila Fiola blocks, presses, dribbles, and scores. Just great! However, Hungary’s strength against France came from Endre Botka‘s 3 tackles and 3 interceptions, as well as Kleinheisler‘s tackling in the midfield.

Germany demolished the Portuguese defense

Robin Gosens was all around amazing, with 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 key passes, 0.6 xG, and blocks and tackle contribution. He looks set for a good performance against Hungary. Joshua Kimmich and his 3 key passes and 55 successful passes did damage as he got an assist. Kai Havertz was quite a threat with 1 goal from 1.3 expected goals. Toni Kroos was awesome in the midfield with constant pressure, 4 interceptions, and 82 (!) successful passes.

Cristiano Ronaldo has been great so far with 3 goals in the tournament and a good amount of expected goals. He had 1 xG against Germany and scored. Diogo Jota had 0.9 xG in this match and scored. Portugal needs him to perform well against France for a chance to qualify. Bruno Fernandes threatened Hungary with 3 key passes but against the Germans he had only one key pass. He possesses the game-changing potential required for a long Euro run. Last but not least, our favorite Nelson Semedo. He was brilliant in dribbling and passing against Hungary, but against Germany his performance fell alongside the team. We are curious to see how he will perform if the game against France opens up.

Matchday 3 Outlook

The Group of Death turned out to be even more exciting than expected. All four teams have a chance to make it to the next round. Every goal counts as the 3rd place may lead to the next round as well.

Germany faces Hungary and will try to break down their defense early in the game. Die Mannschaft are heavy favorites with 83% chances to win. Hungary need a win so we expect them to open up their play compared to the defensive tactics they opted for so far.

Portugal’s great start to the tournament and the match against Germany is now in jeopardy. Against France they need to avoid defeat. A draw (33% chances) may be enough for them to go to the next round with 4 points. Les Bleus are expected to play their attractive game but will need to be more efficient up front.

Heatmap of matches played and win probabilities for UEFA EURO 2020 Group F.

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